Harris came out stronger than Trump in first debate, but presidential race remains tight: Analysts

In their first – and possibly only – debate, United States Vice President Kamala Harris got under former president Donald Trump’s skin and managed to improve perceptions of her as a strong candidate, political analysts told CNA.
But they said the debate is expected to have little impact on the tight race, adding that both candidates are likely to maintain their bases and compete for independent voters in the final weeks of their campaigns.
Harris, the Democrats’ nominee and Trump, the Republicans’ nominee, were both looking for an advantage during the 90-minute debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.
National polls have shown them effectively tied in the race for the White House, with less than two months to go before voters cast their ballots on Nov 5.
The two candidates clashed over issues including immigration, foreign policy and healthcare, but the debate was light on specific policy details. They also exchanged barbs over the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Trump grew increasingly agitated as Harris launched a series of attacks on abortion limits, the 78-year-old’s fitness for office and his multiple legal woes, prompting him to deliver a stream of retorts.
“I think Donald Trump came across as very, very angry. I don’t know if that’s going to succeed with American voters, because his anger was right there up front,” said William Schneider, professor emeritus from George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government.
“I think Kamala Harris gave people a lot more ammunition to defend her, but I’m not sure the job is anywhere near over.”
Nevertheless, he noted that Trump came across as stronger.
Observers said that Harris’ intense preparation for the debate paid off, as the Democrat sounded polished and in better control.
American politics professor Timothy J Lynch from the University of Melbourne said she won the debate “much more decisively than many people imagined” and was not a “gaffe machine”, in reference to President Joe Biden who once notably called himself that.
“I don’t think this guarantees that she’ll win the (election). In lots of ways, though, she corrected all sorts of misapprehensions,” Lynch told CNA’s Asia Now programme.
“I don’t think Trump was crushed, and in lots of ways, I think Trump landed some blows, and Trump was Trump, so I don’t think his position was reduced. But hers was certainly elevated by a much better performance than many imagined.”
Schneider said that Harris came across as “tougher than most Americans expected” and being very strong on the issue of abortion rights, which has emerged as one of the key issues for many voters.
Trump, meanwhile, was trying to convey the anger that many Americans feel by attacking the Biden administration as well as Harris’ record and plans, added Schneider.
He noted: “The important thing is (Harris) did not let Trump rattle her. She seemed to be rattling Trump more than he was rattling her, and that was a revelation, I think, for a lot of Americans.”
Observers had said Harris needed to show voters how she would lead the nation, with opinion polls showing that more than a quarter of potential voters feel they do not know enough about her.
The former prosecutor entered the race only seven weeks ago after Biden’s exit, following his shaky debate with Trump in June that sparked concerns over Biden’s age and cognition.
Schneider said Harris did not elaborate on her plans in much detail, but noted she did not have the chance to expand on them.
“Did she convince people that she could do the job? I think she went some distance in doing that, but she was very defensive about a lot of points on the Biden record,” he added.
“I’m not sure whatever she had to say will convince Americans that she’s running on a strong record of the Biden administration. They’re still going to want more information from her about exactly what she intends to do.”
Lynch pointed out that Harris succeeded in correcting some contradictions she previously made, and was especially strong on issues she flip-flopped over such as fracking.
Harris last month swore off any prior assertion that she opposed fracking – a type of drilling technique to extract oil and gas from deep underground.
When Trump repeatedly claimed during the debate that she would ban fracking if she becomes president, Harris responded she would not impose such a ban.
Lynch noted: “She actually found a way of construing that flip-flop as a defence of American national economic interests, that we can achieve economic energy independence through a reversion to fracking.”
As for Trump, Lynch said his greatest appeal in the last decade was that he “doesn’t need artifice”.
“He’s got fairly instinctive gut instincts about the way the world works and the way America should work, and he sticks to that,” Lynch said, adding that he did not have to correct shifting positions like Harris did.
As for whether the candidates’ debate performances will sway voters, the observers said Harris likely did a better job of appealing to undecided ones.
Lynch pointed out that Trump was “not at peak form” and looked “tired … irritable and grumpy”, while Harris was “effusive”.
“She marched over to him to grab his hand at the beginning, which I think knocked him off balance, and he took a while to recover from that,” Lynch added, referring to a surprise handshake they exchanged before the debate began.
“If she’s selling optimism and kind of the rosy uplands of progress to a wavering middle ground of voters, I think she did the better job of that than Trump did.”
However, Lynch noted that the country will continue being locked into a “very, very close election” until November.
“There are still 56 days to go and a lot can happen in politics, and especially a lot has happened and will happen in American politics in this current season,” he added.